Can everyone be a 'superforecaster'?
Wouldn’t you want to be able to predict the future?
Wouldn’t life be easier if we knew before we got married, buy stocks, start a new job or decide how the next presidential election will go, what would happen? What, if anything, can we do to improve our ability to predict?
As someone who is frequently asked on TV and radio to forecast topics like US presidential elections, FED’s next rate hike, what Putin’s Russia could do next, predicting outcomes is part of my work. I was therefore very interested to learn about the book “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” by Tetlock & Gardner.
In their New York Times bestseller, Tetlock and Gardner share their discovery that whilst good judgment and good forecasting is rare, they turn out to be teachable skills. By forcing forecasters to compete, Tetlock discovered what the skills are and how they work, and this book teaches the ability to any interested reader.
I bought a copy in London last week and read most of it during my 4 hour journey back to Istanbul. I will finish it this week and share my views with you. Will my own forecasting change as a result? Will I look at different data? How will this impact on my work?
In the meantime, if you could super forecast or predict, what is it you like to know about?